Matches/differs analysis for Deriv

A differs trade wins when the last digit is anything other than the digit you pick, which happens 9 times in 10. A matches trade wins only when the digit is exactly the one you pick, 1 time in 10. The chart on this page shows how often each digit came up in the recent window.

Differs wins often but pays little. At a $1 stake a win makes about $0.09, so one loss cancels about eleven wins, and you need to win roughly 91.7% of trades to break even.

Common questions

Is digit differs a good strategy?

Differs wins about 90% of the time, but the payout is small enough that it loses money over many trades. In live quotes we took in October 2026, the average cost was about 1.9% of the stake at $1 and 1.4% at $5.

Why do differs bots pick the least frequent digit?

Some bots choose the digit that came up least in recent ticks. Each digit is independent, so that digit still comes up about 10% of the time and the choice doesn't change the win rate.

How does Deriv digit matches work?

Pick one digit from 0 to 9. You win if the last digit of the final tick is that digit. The payout is large, but the chance is 10%, and in our live quotes matches cost about 10.7% of the stake per trade.