Over/under analysis for Deriv

An over/under contract wins when the last digit of the final tick is above or below the barrier digit you pick. The table on this page shows how often recent digits landed over and under every barrier, so you can compare a setup with its long-run rate.

Each barrier has a fixed long-run rate. Over 1 wins on digits 2 to 9, which is 80% of the time, and Over 5 wins on 6 to 9, which is 40%. Deriv lowers the payout as the chance of winning rises.

Common questions

What does Over 4 mean on Deriv?

The trade wins if the last digit of the final tick is 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9. Over a long run that happens half the time.

Which over/under barrier costs the least?

In live Deriv quotes we took in October 2026, Over 1 and Under 8 cost the least, about 1.4 to 1.6% of the stake per trade on average at stakes of $1 or more. Over 5 and Under 4 cost about 2.9%. Stakes under $1 cost more because Deriv rounds payouts to the cent.

Can recent over/under rates predict the next tick?

No. The next digit is independent of the recent ones, so a barrier that has been hit often lately is no more likely to be hit again.